February 1st, 2002
State of the Union - Now Insert
Foot
Man, was that a bad State
of the Union President Bush gave, the other night. Sure,
it sounded bipartisan on the domestic front. He didn't come off
being too much one way or the other on key issues. He even sounded
out on some talking points that could have come right out of
Bill Clinton. As one talking head said, it was hard to tell whether
a Democrat or a Republican wrote the words down. And maybe that's
a signal that he's willing to wheel and deal with Congress on
some sticking points.
But when it came to the War on Terror, it was a dud.
No, actually it was worse than a dud - it was a mistimed bomb.
It's one thing to have a bomb drop down and fail to detonate,
but quite another to have the thing blow up while you're taking
off from the carrier. And that's what this was.
Let's say that the President is correct when he says that
Iraq, Iran and North Korea are all state sponsors of terrorism.
At the very least, let's assume there are forces operating within
the government, or steadfastly loyal to it, who perform terrorist
acts. Do we really want to let them know, up front and officially,
that we're looking at them down the barrel of a gun?
This isn't the sort of war where someone did something to
us, and now we're going to do it back three-fold to them. 9/11
may have woken us up and gotten us moving on Afghanistan, but
the other targets we need to engage might not do anything of
the sort. And if they had any ideas about trying something like
9/11, well... hopefully they've learned better.
But what if they haven't? And what if they heard that speech
and have realized that it's really only a matter of time before
the might of the US Military is focused right on them for what
might be a very brief, photogenic war that they cannot hope to
win? One excuse is all that's needed to get our boys on their
shores. Heck, maybe not even that.
If I were in the place of certain individuals in power in
those counties - especially in Iraq and North Korea - I'd decide
to gamble and try and cripple America before they did the same
to us. When you've got no hope with one option, and a slim hope
with the other, you take the slim hope and pray to whomever's
listening that it works.
And let's look at who we're dealing with, here. Saddam Hussein
is a jerk who'll rain poison gas down on his own people, and
a really bad gambler to boot. I wouldn't put it past him to do
something stupid just to try and stave off the inevitable.
But as bad as Saddam is, at least he's playing with a full
deck of cards. North Korea's Kim Jong-Il, on the other hand,
is a complete nutjob.
When I was living in South Korea, it seemed that a month didn't
go by that North Korea's "leadership" didn't froth
at the mouth over something. Defectors were always revealing
some horrid plan to lob missiles over the DMZ and turn South
Korea into a parking lot. I doubt things have changed much since
I've been gone, and if that's not just defectors telling their
benefactors what they want to hear, then what might a madman
do to America?
And Iran... good grief, talk about bad timing. For the first
time in what seems forever, we've got a good chance that the
people of Iran - who are clamoring for reform - have an advocate
in President Mohammed Khatami. He might not be the ideal leader
in American eyes, but he's nowhere near as bad as the Clerics
he's duking it out with. And we just had to go point a finger
at them... well, it's back to the drawing board with that one.
In short, telling your enemies that you've got them lined
up for an invasion is not - repeat, NOT - a good idea when said
enemies might have agents in country ready to go blow up something
important. He shouldn't have named names. He should have kept
it vague. And even if names had to be named, there was a very
compelling argument to leave Iran off the list.
This is the sort of war where we're dealing with an enemy
that doesn't always wear a uniform, march in formation or adhere
to an open strategy. Their most deadly operatives are off in
the shadows, moving very quietly and waiting to strike when we
least expect. This isn't the sort of war where you shoot the
guy with a gun coming over the hill and hope the home front can
take care of the spies and saboteurs. This is a war where the
enemy is the spies and saboteurs, with the soldiers hanging out
back at home to watch the skies and kick the dissidents.
In other words, we can't count on our military to be a deterrent.
They might only ever be useful in launching a counter-attack
after the damage has already been done. And I don't want to think
about what that damage might be...
Success in this matter requires that we wage a different form
of war, with different tactics and a sound strategy to back them
up. And I'll tell you this much for free: naming names on the
TV is NOT the way to go on this one. You never, ever telegraph
your direct intentions - not even in a more traditional war.
In this kind of war, we should telegraph nothing at all, save
our desire to win.
If I were Dubya, I'd take no more speeches from whomever scribbled
that one. And if Dubya was the culprit, I'd strongly hope certain
individuals in the Cabinet start proofing the thing for boo-boos
before he goes live.
We're starting to shoot our efforts in the foot. If the problem
continues, we might be digging our own graves
"... Lancelot, Galahad and I leap out of the rabbit..."
- Monty Python and the Holy Grail
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